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2025“Come for the trade, stay for the dazzling 60-minute education on the state of AI.”
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The largest in stock market history
How a 12,000-word blog post from a Brooklyn apartment contributed to the largest single-day market cap drop in stock market history.
A deep dive into how AI economics, models like DeepSeek, and GPU supply can collide with valuation narratives. Explores the potential reflexivity of the AI capex cycle.
From essay publication to historic market impact — the sequence of events that made financial history.
Key insight: DeepSeek V3 was released in late December 2024, and R1 on January 20. The market had NO reaction to either release. It took the essay—explaining what these efficiency breakthroughs meant for Nvidia's moat—to catalyze the selloff a full week later. This proves the essay was the proximate cause, not the DeepSeek releases themselves.
Chinese AI startup releases breakthrough reasoning model at a fraction of typical training costs. Market reaction: none.
"The Short Case for Nvidia Stock" goes live on Your Token Online, connecting the dots on what DeepSeek meant for Nvidia's moat.
Chamath Palihapitiya shares the essay to his millions of followers.
View sourceNaval Ravikant shares the essay, calling it "required reading."
View source$600B single-day market cap decline. The largest in stock market history.
Bloomberg columnist calls it "a candidate for the most impactful short research report ever."
Slashdot, TechRadar, Diginomica, Techmeme, and others cover the story.
Reactions from industry leaders, media outlets, and the tech community.
Deep dives into the analysis and its implications for AI infrastructure.
In-depth discussion aired the day after the $600B drop.
January 28, 2025
Listen NowAI infrastructure disruption, open-source innovation, AGI implications.
Listen NowDeep dive on Nvidia, XAI, Tesla FSD, and humanoid robots.
The questions raised about AI infrastructure economics, efficiency breakthroughs, and competitive dynamics remain relevant as the industry evolves. Jeffrey continues to analyze markets and build tools for the AI era.